Due to the fact that I don’t live in America, not all of the nominated films have come out yet, Lady Bird, for example only comes out in May and if I’d wanted to watch Phantom Thread, I’d have to drive across the country. Therefore I’ll base my predictions on the films that I’ve seen and on the things I’ve heard about the films I have yet to see. So let’s start, shall we?
Call Me by Your Name (Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito)
Darkest Hour (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski)
Dunkirk (Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan)
Get Out (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Jordan Peele)
Lady Bird (Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill)
Phantom Thread (JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi)
The Post (Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger)
The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro, J. Miles Dale)
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh)
Snubbed? Blade Runner 2049, Good Time, A Ghost Story
There are a ton of good films nominated, but I think that there are only two real contenders: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. While I believe that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the better film, I think that The Shape of Water will take home the award. Outside of these two films, I don’t feel like there are any that have a chance at winning, but, of course, I could be wrong.
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Snubbed? Robert Pattinson for his performance in Good Time and Adam Sandler for his performance in The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
I’ve only seen two of these performances, one of which is the one of Daniel Kaluuya. He gave a fantastic performance, but I wouldn’t really call it Oscar-worthy. I’m also quite sure that Denzel Washington won’t win, since the film he was in, wasn’t that spectacular as I’ve heard. Timothée Chalamet was incredible in Call Me By Your Name and I’ve heard that Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance was great as well, but I have the gut feeling that they won’t win. However, I do believe that Gary Oldman has quite the chance of finally winning an Oscar for his role as Churchill. He was great in his role, but I feel like it’ll be more like an honorary award than an award for the performance. Nonetheless, I’ll be glad if he won.
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Snubbed? Jennifer Lawrence for her role in mother!, Aubrey Plaza for her role in Ingrid Goes West and Jessica Chastain for her role in Molly’s Game
This category’s filled with wonderful performances and it’s quite hard to choose one. I don’t think that Streep will win and that’s just an obligatory nomination, although I’m sure she was wonderful in her role. I’d love to see Saoirse Ronan win, but I have a feeling she won’t, same goes for Margot Robbie. So it’s a toss-up between McDormand and Hawkins. Both were incredible, but I’d have to go with Frances McDormand, who, in my opinion, gave a slightly better performance.
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Snubbed? Benny Safdie for his performance in Good Time, Ray Romano for his performance in The Big Sick and Barry Keoghan for his performance in The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Armie Hammer for his role in Call Me By Your Name
I’m quite sure that Plummer’s just put in there to fuck with Spacey, so I don’t think that he’ll win. He gave a great performance, but the other actors all outshone him. I’ve yet to see The Florida Project, so I can’t be the judge of Willem Dafoe’s performance in that film, but as I haven’t heard any buzz at all about how he was in the film, I believe that there’s just a small chance he’ll win. Out of the other three, it’s pretty hard to choose which one will win. Harrelson was amazing, Rockwell was fantastic and Jenkins was as charismatic as you could possibly be. It’s quite the toss-up, but I think that Rockwell might win since he got the more complex character to portray and nailed doing so.
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Snubbed? Holly Hunter’s performance in The Big Sick
I really like that they nominated Mary J. Blige for her role in Mudbound since she was absolutely fantastic, but I don’t feel like she will win. Octavia Spencer too was incredible and I’d love to see her win, but something’s telling me she won’t. I haven’t heard a lot of buzz around Laurie Metcalf or Lesley Manville – nothing about Manville, actually-, so I don’t think that they have a chance of winning. That’s why I believe that Allison Janney will earn an Oscar for her role in I, Tonya.
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Snubbed? Darren Aronofsky for his work on mother!, Denis Villeneuve for his work on Blade Runner 2049 and Yorgos Lanthimos for his work on The Killing of a Sacred Deer
I really hope that Guillermo Del Toro will win for his work on The Shape of Water and I think that he will actually win. I believe that they threw Gerwig and Peele in there because they were left out at the Globes, which caused for some noise. Not to say that Get Out was badly directed by any means, in contrary. The directing was very subtle and Peele succeeded at balancing horror elements really well with comedic elements. It was an incredible debut film, but it’s not good enough to compete with the directing in Dunkirk and The Shape of Water. Plus, from what I’ve heard, the directing in Lady Bird wasn’t anything special overall. The directing in The Shape of Water, however, was stellar, but so was the directing in Dunkirk. And apparently so was the directing in Phantom Thread. It’s quite a hard choice to make, but I think that Del Toro will win.
Get Out written by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird written by Greta Gerwig
The Big Sick written by Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon
The Shape of Water written by Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri written by Martin McDonagh
Snubbed? The Killing of a Sacred Deer written by Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou (probably just left out because of possible pronunciation problems ;)), The Meyerowitz Stories written by Noah Baumbach and Wind River written by Taylor Sheridan
This is also quite a hard category, so let’s start with ruling out the one that I think won’t win: The Shape of Water. The film had a decent screenplay, but the dialogue was a bit too on the nose at times. Get Out had a very original and refreshing screenplay that combined horror and comedy very well, as did The Big Sick with humor and drama. Lady Bird’s apparently also really well written, which is why I really want to see it, but can’t due to it coming out in fucking May over here. But, even if Lady Bird’s written as well as I’ve heard it is, I still think that Martin McDonagh’s screenplay for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will top it. It was hilarious, it was saddening, the dialogue was great; it was perfect. The characters had fantastic arcs that the screenplay handled with extreme care. They were all extremely well fleshed out, even the side characters, and I didn’t feel as if there were any unnecessary ones. That’s why I think that it’s one of the best screenplays of the year and why I think that it’ll probably win.
Call Me by Your Name written by James Ivory
Logan written by Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly’s Game written by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound written by Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
The Disaster Artist written by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
I’m pretty certain Call Me by Your Name will win this one, and my guess is that this will also be the only Oscar the film will be getting, unfortunately. I like that they’ve nominated Logan’s screenplay and Mudbound’s one, but I don’t really think that they’ve a chance at winning over the screenplay of Molly’s Game or Call Me By Your Name. Call Me By Your Name was written with incredible care and thought, that created layered characters. The dialogue was great too and the story captivating; I loved it. I also really liked Aaron Sorkin’s script, but there was a tad bit too much narration and one scene in particular just fell out of the sky, but that might more have been his fault as a director rather than a writer, nonetheless, those are my reasons why I think that Call Me By Your Name is superior over these scripts.
Blade Runner 2049 filmed by Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour filmed by Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk filmed by Hoyte Van Hoytema
Mudbound filmed by Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water filmed by Dan Laustsen
Snubbed? A Ghost Story filmed by Andrew Droz Palermo
This category too is filled with fantastically shot films – I have yet to see Darkest Hour, but Dunkirk and Mudbound were fabulous too look at – , but the cinematography of Blade Runner 2049 is better than the other nominees by miles. Roger Deakins made each frame look gorgeous and was able to blend practical effects together with digital effects seamlessly, which cause for technologically perfect shots. The cinematography of Blade Runner 2049 is a true achievement and it would be outright wrong to not give it to Deakins. If they do though, I believe that The Shape of Water is deserving of the Oscar.
Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread¸ Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water, Luis Sequeira
Victoria & Abdul, Consolata Boyle
I have no clue how Victoria & Abdul ended up at the Oscars, but it’s there… and it won’t win. Other than that film and Beauty and the Beast there’s quite a lot of competition and it could go either way. The costumes in The Shape of Water were absolutely amazing, and apparently so were the ones in Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour. I’d love to see Phantom Thread win in this category, solely because the film’s centered around a fashion designer, but my guess is that it’ll go to The Shape of Water, which I’m also happy with.
Baby Driver, Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis and Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
Dunkirk, Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten
Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, Michael Semanick, David Parker, Stuart Wilson and Ren Klyce
The Shape of Water, Christian T. Cooke, Glen Gauthier and Brad Zoern
I’m taking these two categories together, because the Acadamy probably doesn’t know the difference between the two and because they nominated the same films for both categories and because the film that will win in one category, will probably also win in the other. Now that that’s out of the way, who do I think will win? Dunkirk. Dunkirk was an amazing cinematic experience, mostly due to how well the sound was crafted. Guns sounded like guns, planes sounded like planes, it felt as if I was there on the battlefield. I was immersed. And if only the sound alone manages to get me immersed in a film, it’s most certainly worth an Oscar.
Baby Driver edited by Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk edited by Lee Smith
I, Tonya edited by Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water edited by Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri edited by Jon Gregory
Snubbed? Good Time
I really hope that Baby Driver gets to take the cake with this award because it certainly deserves to do so. In most film’s it’s bad if you notice the editing, but in this film, it was the main gimmick. And that isn’t a bad thing; it just made the film the more enjoyable. The other films’ editing was great, but who can win against a film where everything’s edited to the beat of a song? Well, possibly Dunkirk, but my money’s still on Baby Driver.
Blade Runner 2049, John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Daniel Sudick
Kong: Skull Island, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Michael Meinardus
Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould
War for the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist
This is another category where Blade Runner 2049 has the highest probability of winning. The film looked gorgeous due to two things; Deakins and the effects. The film utilized special effects more as a helping tool rather than rely completely on it, which made for a realistic looking sci-fi film. War for the Planet of the Apes, a film that relied heavily on special effects, also looked really good, but ultimately I feel that it falls in the shadow of Blade Runner 2049.
Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
Victoria & Abdul, Daniel Phillips, Loulia Sheppard
Wonder, Arjen Tuiten
Snubbed? The Shape of Water
Hey! It’s Victoria & Abdul again… for some reason. And Wonder, just to fill the category. I really don’t get why they snubbed The Shape of Water over one of these films, but oh well, it’s more than obvious that Darkest Hour would’ve won regardless, which is really understandable since the make-up in that film’s spectacular
Call Me by Your Name Sufjan Stevens wrote/performed Mystery of Love
Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez wrote/performed Remember Me
Marshall, Common and Diane Warren wrote/performed Stand Up for Something
Mudbound, Raphael Saadiq, Mary J. Blige and Taura Stinson wrote/performed Mighty River
The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek Justin Paul wrote/performed This is Me
Snubbed? I Get Overwhelmed, written and performed by Dark Rooms in A Ghost Story
Coco will probably win in this category, but it’s mindboggling to me that I Get Overwhelmed wasn’t nominated. The song’s so beautifully written and composed and it fitted incredibly well into the scene where it was utilized. I even still listen to it to this day. Nonetheless, I’ll be glad if Coco’s Remember Me wins. Mystery of Love is also really good and I’d really like it to win, but I have a feeling that Coco will be the one to take the award home.
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, John Williams
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
Snubbed? A Ghost Story, Good Time, Call Me By Your Name
Again, where’s A Ghost Story? The score in that film was phenomenal. Anyway, I don’t think Star Wars will win, or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, because the three remaining nominees are head and shoulders above them. Personally, I prefer the score of Dunkirk over the one of The Shape of Water, but I think there’s a big chance The Shape of Water will win. I’ve also heard a lot of good things about Phantom Thread’s score, but I’ve yet to listen to it. So my guess is that The Shape of Water will once again win.
Coco, Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
Ferdinand, Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent, Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart
The Boss Baby, Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
The Breadwinner, Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
Snubbed? The Lego Batman Movie
Without a single doubt, there’s only one true winner and that is The Boss Baby. The incredible voice acting, the fantastic story and the inventive directing, together with the gorgeous animation all make up for an incredible film. But! If The Boss Baby somehow manages to lose, then the hilarious Ferdinand is my second choice.
On a more serious note though, Coco will most definitely win.
And those are my predictions for the upcoming Oscars. What are yours? Comment down below!
5 thoughts on “Oscars 2018: Predictions”
You put more effort into your oscar post than I did and I enjoyed reading. Sacred Deer snubbed for original screenplay is a great call and you know I loved Good Time. Even though I found Logan too explicitly violent, Hugh Jackman was great in it and I think he deserved at least a nom for Best Actor. Best Picture and original screenplay seem to be the big categories with the most suspense this year.
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Thanks! I’m still not to sure whether or not “The Shape of Water” will win, since ” Thee Billboards” already won at the Globes and at the BAFTAS; it could go either way. Original screenplay is indeed though one too. I saw that you picked “Get Out” over “Three Billboards” and it does have quite the chance of winning.
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I’ve only seen four of the films nominated but of those my vote goes to Three Billboards. If I knew how to spell the name of the actress in Lady Bird, I’d vote for her too.
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Bring it on!
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